The Effect of reciprocal tariffs policy on thailand2

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  The US government announced a tariff rate of 19% on imports from Thailand on July 31 local time, down from the previous figure of 36%. effective from August 7, 2025—marks a pivotal shift in trade dynamics between the two nations.

  Regarding the list of products exempted from Thai customs duties for the U.S. in exchange for a reduction in import taxes on Thai goods to 19%, the items are divided into three categories:

1.      Products Thailand does not produce.

2.      Products Thailand produces but insufficiently: Some items, such as corn.

3.      Products Thailand already imports, but the U.S. does not export: For example, longan.

 
Negative Impacts:

1.      Increased export costs: If the U.S. raises import tariffs on Thai goods (e.g., automobiles, electronic components, or agricultural products), Thai exporters may face higher costs or need to shift to other markets, affecting shipping volumes by sea and air.

2.      Supply chain uncertainty: Logistics operators may need to adapt to changes in shipping routes and warehousing if demand for Thai products in the U.S. declines.

3.      Competition with Vietnam or Mexico: If the U.S. grants preferential tariffs to other countries (e.g., through USMCA or China tariff avoidance), Thai exports could decrease, reducing logistics demand.

 
Positive Impacts:

1.      Production base diversification If the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on Chinese goods, foreign companies may relocate production to Thailand to avoid tariffs, boosting demand for domestic and international logistics services.

2.      Expansion of warehouses and ports: Thailand could benefit from becoming a regional distribution hub, especially through Laem Chabang Port and Suvarnabhumi Airport, which may handle trade rerouted from China.

3.      Growth in cross-border e-commerce: If Thailand can increase exports of consumer goods to the U.S., the logistics sector—particularly express delivery and distribution centers—will expand.


 The United States' recent imposition of import tariffs has created varying degrees of economic impact across nations, with Thailand facing a significant 19% rate. This comprehensive breakdown classifies affected countries into five distinct tiers based on their assigned tariff percentages, presented in descending order from most to least impacted.


List of countries Reciprocal Tariff from USA divided into 5 groups

Very high Tariff group (35% and above)

35% : Iraq, Serbia

39% : Switzerland

40% : Laos , Myanmar (Burma)

41% : Syria

  

High Tariff group (25–30%)

25% : Brunei, India, Kazakhstan ,  Moldova, Tunisia

30% : Algeria, Bosnia - Herzegovina , Libya ,South Africa

 

Middle Tariff group (18–20%)

18% : Nicaragua

19% : Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand

20% : Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam

 
Low Tariff group (15%)

Afghanistan

Angola

Bolivia

Botswana

Cameroon

Chad

Costa Rica

Côte d`Ivoire

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ecuador

Equatorial Guinea

Fiji

Ghana

Guyana

Iceland

Israel

Japan

Jordan

Lesotho

Liechtenstein

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Nauru

New Zealand

Nigeria

North Macedonia

Norway

Papua New Guinea

South Korea

Trinidad and Tobago

Turkey

Uganda

Vanuatu

Venezuela

 
10% Lowest tariff group

Brazil

Falkland Islands

United Kingdom


Special Note – European Union (EU)

If Column 1 Duty Rate > 15% → 0% Tariff

If Column 1 Duty Rate < 15% → Reciprocal Tariff = 15% - Column 1 Rate

 
In Conclusion

 The effects vary by product type and foreign investor strategies. Should Thailand succeed in becoming a competitive alternative to China or Vietnam, its logistics industry could expand. Conversely, reduced exports to the U.S. would necessitate diversification to other markets, demanding enhanced supply chain flexibility.

References

https://shorturl.at/WhVm4

https://policywatch.thaipbs.or.th/article/investment-83

https://www.bbc.com/thai/articles/c2djxzkrgjwo