The Effect of reciprocal tariffs policy on thailand2
Last updated: 19 Aug 2025 | 88 Views |
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The US government announced a tariff rate of 19% on imports from Thailand on July 31 local time, down from the previous figure of 36%. effective from August 7, 2025—marks a pivotal shift in trade dynamics between the two nations.
Regarding the list of products exempted from Thai customs duties for the U.S. in exchange for a reduction in import taxes on Thai goods to 19%, the items are divided into three categories:
1. Products Thailand does not produce.
2. Products Thailand produces but insufficiently: Some items, such as corn.
3. Products Thailand already imports, but the U.S. does not export: For example, longan.
Negative Impacts:
1. Increased export costs: If the U.S. raises import tariffs on Thai goods (e.g., automobiles, electronic components, or agricultural products), Thai exporters may face higher costs or need to shift to other markets, affecting shipping volumes by sea and air.
2. Supply chain uncertainty: Logistics operators may need to adapt to changes in shipping routes and warehousing if demand for Thai products in the U.S. declines.
3. Competition with Vietnam or Mexico: If the U.S. grants preferential tariffs to other countries (e.g., through USMCA or China tariff avoidance), Thai exports could decrease, reducing logistics demand.
Positive Impacts:
1. Production base diversification If the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on Chinese goods, foreign companies may relocate production to Thailand to avoid tariffs, boosting demand for domestic and international logistics services.
2. Expansion of warehouses and ports: Thailand could benefit from becoming a regional distribution hub, especially through Laem Chabang Port and Suvarnabhumi Airport, which may handle trade rerouted from China.
3. Growth in cross-border e-commerce: If Thailand can increase exports of consumer goods to the U.S., the logistics sector—particularly express delivery and distribution centers—will expand.
The United States' recent imposition of import tariffs has created varying degrees of economic impact across nations, with Thailand facing a significant 19% rate. This comprehensive breakdown classifies affected countries into five distinct tiers based on their assigned tariff percentages, presented in descending order from most to least impacted.
List of countries Reciprocal Tariff from USA divided into 5 groups
Very high Tariff group (35% and above)
35% : Iraq, Serbia
39% : Switzerland
40% : Laos , Myanmar (Burma)
41% : Syria
High Tariff group (25–30%)
25% : Brunei, India, Kazakhstan , Moldova, Tunisia
30% : Algeria, Bosnia - Herzegovina , Libya ,South Africa
Middle Tariff group (18–20%)
18% : Nicaragua
19% : Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand
20% : Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam
Low Tariff group (15%)
Afghanistan
Angola
Bolivia
Botswana
Cameroon
Chad
Costa Rica
Côte d`Ivoire
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Ecuador
Equatorial Guinea
Fiji
Ghana
Guyana
Iceland
Israel
Japan
Jordan
Lesotho
Liechtenstein
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Nauru
New Zealand
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Norway
Papua New Guinea
South Korea
Trinidad and Tobago
Turkey
Uganda
Vanuatu
Venezuela
10% Lowest tariff group
Brazil
Falkland Islands
United Kingdom
Special Note – European Union (EU)
If Column 1 Duty Rate > 15% → 0% Tariff
If Column 1 Duty Rate < 15% → Reciprocal Tariff = 15% - Column 1 Rate
In Conclusion
The effects vary by product type and foreign investor strategies. Should Thailand succeed in becoming a competitive alternative to China or Vietnam, its logistics industry could expand. Conversely, reduced exports to the U.S. would necessitate diversification to other markets, demanding enhanced supply chain flexibility.
References
https://policywatch.thaipbs.or.th/article/investment-83
https://www.bbc.com/thai/articles/c2djxzkrgjwo
